MNN Hub
With over six weeks of the 2023 MLB season in the books, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of which players will be competing for the various awards at the end of the season. Some preseason sleepers have taken a big step forward, while other chalk favorites have endured sharp year-to-year regression. As we have a pretty decent sample size to go by, today we will discuss the American League Rookie of the Year race and unveil our best bets, top value picks, and favorite sleepers to win the award.
Whereas the NL looks like a two-man battle between outfielders James Outman of the Dodgers and Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks, the AL looks about as wide open as the 2024 GOP presidential race. BetMGM lists a whopping 12 American League rookies at +3000 or shorter to win the award, and four have better than +1000 odds.
The fun thing about the respective league’s Rookie of the Year race is that it’s a melting pot. Unlike MVP and Cy Young, pitchers and hitters are not only both eligible for ROY but quite often both featured among the frontrunners in futures odds. Offensive studs of all different skill sets can emerge as legitimate contenders, unlike the power-driven and Shohei Ohtani-dominated MVP markets.
Let’s take a look at the 2023 American League Rookie of the Year odds, and then make our best bet, top value pick, and favorite sleeper to take home the most coveted rookie honor in the AL.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
American League Rookie of the Year: Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Player
Odds
Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox
+150
Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers
+500
Hunter Brown, SP, Astros
+850
Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees
+900
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
+1600
Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners
+1600
Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles
+2000
Mason Miller, SP, Athletics
+2500
Tanner Bibee, SP, Guardians
+3000
Taj Bradley, SP, Rays
+3000
Esteury Ruiz, OF, Athletics
+3000
Zach Neto, SS, Angels
+3500
Logan Allen, SP, Guardians
+4000
Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox
+4500
Oswald Peraza, SS, Yankees
+8000
Oscar Colas, OF, White Sox
+8000
Kyle Muller, SP, Athletics
+8000
American League Rookie of the Year: Best bets
Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox (+150)
It’s pretty lame to go chalk with our best bet — especially at just +150 — but Yoshida is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the hitters in this rookie class. The 29-year-old from Japan is batting .298 with an .873 OPS on the season, mixing in six home runs and 24 RBIs in just 121 at-bats. Yoshida has already established himself as a reliable bat in the heart of the Red Sox order, and his batted-ball data proves that his offensive skill set translates perfectly to success at Fenway Park. With preseason ROY favorite Gunnar Henderson struggling mightily in Baltimore, you would be hard-pressed to find a more dependable bet in this field than Yoshida.
Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (+500)
April’s AL Rookie of the Month, Jung certainly deserves early consideration for Rookie of the Year. The slugging third baseman sits within the 80th percentile in expected slugging, the 75th percentile for barrel rate, and the 72nd percentile for hard-hit rate. His max-velo on the young season flirted with 110 miles per hour. Baseball voters love power, so if Jung can keep hitting five or six homers a month while driving in 20-plus RBIs, the 25-year-old native Texan has a real shot at pulling down ROY honors.
American League Rookie of the Year: Top value bet
Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners (+1600)
Miller has looked incredible through two starts since getting called up, going 1-0 with an 0.75 ERA, 0.42 WHIP, and 15:1 strikeout-to-walk rate across 12 innings. His stuff is filthy, sitting in the 99th percentile in spin rate on his fastball, which generates a 28.8 percent whiff rate. Batters are hitting just .033 against that four-seamer. Miller is obviously due for some regression — and he will need to steadily improve his curveball and slider if he expects sustained MLB success — but anyone who holds the defending-champion Astros to three baserunners in six innings in their second career start sure seems like a top value bet to win Rookie of the Year.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
American League Rookie of the Year: Best sleeper
Esteury Ruiz, OF, Athletics (+3000)
We got in on Ruiz at +6000 not long ago, and we’re gassed about that. The Athletics outfielder has been one of the lone bright spots for an otherwise-dismal Oakland squad, leading the majors with 17 stolen bases and hitting .325 against lefties. He has been a singles and doubles machine in May, hitting .311 and upping his OBP to .329 on the season. Ruiz is flirting with an 80-steal pace, and the fact that he plays on Rickey Henderson Field makes this a hell of a story. Even though the value of +6000 has been cut in half, we still see Ruiz as a fantastic sleeper opt
Source: Sporting News | Read More
